stellar_muddle | Re Disaster threats

Apparently work has had to be delayed on Thames Hospital's upgrade, due to some buildings lie in the path of a potential debris flow (like the one at Matata, last year). Standard sort of news article (I wont repeat all of the article, just some relevant bits).

Disaster threat stops work on hospital
07.03.06 (NZ Herald)
[snip]
Property values of at least 33 homes could be hit by the findings of the Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences draft report, set to be released in its final form at the end of the month.

The homes, in Bella St, Motatau Rd, Eden St, Karaka Rd, Pahau St and Redwood Lane are in the path of the predicted debris flow.

Environment Waikato, which commissioned the report, is refusing to release the report publicly.

But the council says it has a "legal duty" to include the potential environment hazard on Land Information Memorandums (LIM reports).

Debris flows carry loads of shingle and rock rapidly along steep channels. Matata was flattened by a debris flow in May last year.

Scientists estimate the probability of such an event in Thames as once in 500 years and note the town has not been hit since its founding in 1867.
[snip]
Affected Karaka Rd resident Terry Gilpin said he would be extremely angry if property values in the area fell. He had lived by the creek for 53 years. "I know what it can do ... it isn't prone to any risk."

You have to love comments from locals about how there hasn't been an incident in my (fill in years here) years so it's all safe, especially talking about stuff with 100+ year likelihood... So, do you take the word of the local who has lived on his farm for 60 years and never had a big earthquake, over the geologist who can point out to you the string of debris fans near the back fence escarpment, where the stream bed outlet across the fault line has shifted several meters in each of the last 4 big earthquakes in the last 2000 years?

Oh and making sure your hospital can survive a fairly big disaster so it can help you after, is a really good idea.

A couple years ago, there was a tsunami in a lagoon in PNG that killed quite a few thousand people. Enough that they couldn't clear away the bodies safely and so just had to quarantene the area for several months. They later on worked out that the area had a history of such events - a tsunami would kill the residents and what survivours there were, would move away and start new lives. Then after a generation or two, newcomers would wander by, wonder why such a nice lagoon and beach area wasn't inhabited and move in. They would raise their families and live well and this would continue for several more generations (~250 years)... until the next tsunami struck.

Obviously if it hasn't yet happened in my life, it will never happen and everything is fine...
And I shouldn't worry about 1/250-1/500 annual exceedence probability... Well, not too much.