Comets and stuff...

More chance of being hit by comet than winning Lotto
Comet-busters left with empty feeling

Now, in an analysis of science reporting, contrast the emphasis of the first article with Paul Francis's original press release:

COMET COLLISION 'ARMAGEDDON' UNLIKEY
But odds greater than winning Lotto jackpot, ANU astronomer finds

The chances of the Earth being hit by a comet from beyond Pluto, á la
Armageddon, are much lower than previously thought, according to new
research by an ANU astronomer.

Using computer simulations and data from an American military telescope, Dr
Paul Francis, from the ANU Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics at
Mt Stromlo, has found there are seven times fewer comets in our solar system
than previously thought.

"I calculate that small comets, capable of destroying a city, only hit the
Earth once every 40 million years or so," Dr Francis said. "Big
continent-busting comets, as shown in the movies Armageddon and Deep Impact,
are rarer still, only hitting once every 150 million years or so. So I
don't loose sleep over it, but you're still more likely to be killed by a
comet than to win the jackpot at Lotto."

Previous estimates of the number of comets were based on the work of amateur
astronomers, who for hundreds of years have been scanning the skies, looking
for new comets.

Previously, it was believed that these amateur astronomers were only
spotting three per cent of the comets passing close to the Earth: the rest
were thought to be missed because they were in the wrong part of the sky or
were too faint.

But Dr Francis found that the amateurs were doing better than anyone had
realised, they were actually spotting 20 per cent of comets. There are
therefore far fewer undiscovered comets.

"The new data allowed us to count the number of faint and far-away comets
that the amateurs had missed. And we found that they were pretty rare," Dr
Francis said.

These results apply to comets coming from beyond the orbit of Pluto, which
is where most comets live. The Earth is still at risk of being hit by
asteroids, and by so-called short-period comets, ones that come past
repeatedly, like Halley's comet.

"But asteroids and short-period comets come past again and again, so if
we're clever enough we can find them all and predict which, if any, will
hit the Earth," said Dr Francis. "If we find one on a collision course
with the Earth, we would normally have hundreds of years warning in which to
do something about it, like deflecting the asteroid."

"The comets coming from beyond Pluto, so called long-period comets, are
nastier, as they are totally unpredictable, and if we see one on a collision
course we'd have at best one or two years warning, not long enough to do
anything."

Dr Francis research has been accepted for publication in the Astrophysical
Journal. It was based on computer simulations, published data from the
Lincoln Near Earth Asteroid Research Project at White Sands Missile Range in
New Mexico, and on data from amateur astronomers around the world.

And in other news, due to changes in the work bus timetable, walked into work today. Took 1 hour 5 min and was good, though can probably safely leave about 10 min later ie can listen to the 7am radio news.

And wrt lack of sleep and its effects:
Dozy doctors might as well be drunk

Strange conversations from morning tea...

Find your Star Wars name: Name is first name backwards (not uncommon), planet you are from is the last medication you took. They were scarily plausible although there were a lot of inhabitants of Planets Panadol and Clarytine... One wonders if the generics form orbits around the big names...